{"id":6285,"date":"2024-06-08T14:43:39","date_gmt":"2024-06-08T07:43:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hva.group\/?p=6285"},"modified":"2024-06-08T14:46:32","modified_gmt":"2024-06-08T07:46:32","slug":"pressure-will-come-on-people","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hva.group\/en\/pressure-will-come-on-people\/","title":{"rendered":"PRESSURE ON EXCHANGE RATE WILL GRADUALLY EFFECT"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the VND\/USD exchange rate has increased sharply by nearly 5% in the first months of the year, experts believe that the pressure to increase the exchange rate will gradually ease in the coming months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Speaking at the Vietnam Wealth Advisor Summit 2024 with the theme \u201cAdapting to the changes\u201d, Dr. Truong Van Phuoc, former Acting Chairman of the National Financial Supervisory Commission, said that exchange rates are not a matter of concern in the near future. The event was organized by Investment Newspaper in collaboration with the Vietnam Wealth Advisors Community (VWA) on June 6, 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to experts, the exchange rate will not exceed 26,000 VND\/USD because the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to cut interest rates in July 2024 or September 2024 right before the US Presidential election and expectations of a depreciation of the "greenback" in the market are increasing. Therefore, the USD index will fall to 100 points and Vietnam will not need to raise interest rates to stabilize the exchange rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe USD will depreciate at least until 2027 and the USD Index will hover around 95-105 points, not increasing any further. The Fed's interest rate will drop to 2.75-3% in the next 3 years. Accordingly, the VND should depreciate at a rate approximately equal to the inflation rate. The interest rate level should revolve around the CPI plus a margin of about 3-4%,\u201d Mr. Phuoc analyzed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Exchange<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the depreciation of nearly 51.3 billion VND since the beginning of the year, Mr. Phuoc said that if considering the balance (balance of payments, inflation, etc.), VND should not have depreciated 51.3 billion VND in one quarter.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf we consider the exchange rate as the intestines, then high-dose antibiotics are the interest rate. If we push interest rates up to treat inflation and exchange rates, it is too simple, but the price to pay is that the economy needs cheap capital. What I want to say is do not use high-dose antibiotics to treat intestinal diseases,\u201d this expert likened.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Mr. Truong Van Phuoc noted that it is necessary to re-evaluate the USD 0% interest rate policy, because this is one of the reasons why Vietnam is always under pressure with the exchange rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sharing the same view, Dr. Can Van Luc, Chief Economist of BIDV, Member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council, said that the pressure on exchange rates for Vietnam has also "gradually decreased".<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Vietnam's
Vietnam's economy 5 months 2024 and full year forecast.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specifically, according to Mr. Luc, the fact that the USD interest rate is anchored at a very high level of over 5% has put pressure on devaluation of almost all major currencies in the world and in the Southeast Asian region, including VND. However, in the past month, the USD has lost more than 1.5% and is likely to continue to decrease in the coming months when the Fed adjusts interest rates. This means that other currencies will start to increase again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAccordingly, the VND will only depreciate by about 3.5-4% in 2024,\u201d Dr. Luc predicted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also discussing at the forum, Mr. Tong Quoc Dat, Head of Senior Market Analysis at Exness Investment Bank, predicted that the USD may not fall as sharply as expected. According to him, the US economy is still much stronger than Europe or other G7 countries. So even if the US lowers interest rates, Europe will do the same, even at a faster pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBecause EU inflation is more stable, Europe is more likely to reduce interest rates faster and more strongly than the US, which will inadvertently push the strength of the USD up. In addition, the EUR also plays a big role in the USD Index (DXY). So if the ECB makes such a move, the USD still carries the risk of strengthening,\u201d Mr. Dat stated his opinion and said that Vietnam still needs to have provisions for this \u201cvariable\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the election factor, Mr. Dat said that if former President Trump enters the White House, policies on tariffs and immigration could be factors that cause inflation to rise again and affect the Fed's interest rate cut roadmap in 2025, helping the USD to "maintain a high position and not completely collapse".<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: VnEconomy<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Although the VND\/USD exchange rate has increased sharply by nearly 5% in the first months of the year, experts believe that the pressure to increase the exchange rate will gradually ease in the coming months. Speaking at the Vietnam Wealth Advisor Summit 2024 with the theme [\u2026]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":6286,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_focuskw":"chung khoan","_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 VND\/USD \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh g\u1ea7n 5% trong nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m nh\u01b0ng c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia cho r\u1eb1ng \u00e1p l\u1ef1c t\u0103ng t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 s\u1ebd v\u01a1i d\u1ea7n trong nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng t\u1edbi\u2026","footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[16,15],"class_list":["post-6285","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tin-tuc-thi-truong","tag-kinh-te","tag-tai-chinh"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u00c1P L\u1ef0C T\u1ef6 GI\u00c1 S\u1ebc V\u01a0I D\u1ea6N - HVA Group<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 VND\/USD \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh g\u1ea7n 5% trong nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m nh\u01b0ng c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia cho r\u1eb1ng \u00e1p l\u1ef1c t\u0103ng t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 s\u1ebd v\u01a1i d\u1ea7n trong nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng t\u1edbi\u2026\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/hva.group\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6285\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u00c1P L\u1ef0C T\u1ef6 GI\u00c1 S\u1ebc V\u01a0I D\u1ea6N\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 VND\/USD \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh g\u1ea7n 5% trong nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m nh\u01b0ng c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia cho r\u1eb1ng \u00e1p l\u1ef1c t\u0103ng t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 s\u1ebd v\u01a1i d\u1ea7n trong nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng t\u1edbi\u2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/hva.group\/en\/pressure-will-come-on-people\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"HVA Group\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-06-08T07:43:39+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-06-08T07:46:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/hva.group\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/FRAME-WEB-TIN-HVA-18-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"500\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"HVA Group\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"HVA Group\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/hva.group\/ap-luc-ty-gia-se-voi-dan\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/hva.group\/ap-luc-ty-gia-se-voi-dan\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"HVA Group\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/hva.group\/#\/schema\/person\/03729d08a6ea1d70c6f95c49510d6da1\"},\"headline\":\"\u00c1P L\u1ef0C T\u1ef6 GI\u00c1 S\u1ebc V\u01a0I D\u1ea6N\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-06-08T07:43:39+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-06-08T07:46:32+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/hva.group\/ap-luc-ty-gia-se-voi-dan\/\"},\"wordCount\":1208,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/hva.group\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/hva.group\/ap-luc-ty-gia-se-voi-dan\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/hva.group\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/FRAME-WEB-TIN-HVA-18-1.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Kinh t\u1ebf\",\"T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Tin t\u1ee9c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/hva.group\/ap-luc-ty-gia-se-voi-dan\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/hva.group\/ap-luc-ty-gia-se-voi-dan\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/hva.group\/ap-luc-ty-gia-se-voi-dan\/\",\"name\":\"\u00c1P L\u1ef0C T\u1ef6 GI\u00c1 S\u1ebc V\u01a0I D\u1ea6N - 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