{"id":6282,"date":"2024-06-08T10:16:55","date_gmt":"2024-06-08T03:16:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hva.group\/?p=6282"},"modified":"2024-06-08T10:16:57","modified_gmt":"2024-06-08T03:16:57","slug":"ap-luc-ty-gia-va-lai-suat-ha-nhiet-nha-dau-tu-nen-tang-ty-trong-danh-muc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hva.group\/en\/pressure-from-inflation-and-cooling-rates-should-increase-investor-exposure-to-the-portfolio\/","title":{"rendered":"PRESSURE ON EXCHANGE RATE AND INTEREST RATES COOLS DOWN, INVESTORS SHOULD INCREASE THE PROPORTFOLIO WEIGHT"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"500\" src=\"https:\/\/hva.group\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/FRAME-WEB-TIN-HVA-18.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6283\" srcset=\"https:\/\/hva.group\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/FRAME-WEB-TIN-HVA-18.jpg 800w, https:\/\/hva.group\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/FRAME-WEB-TIN-HVA-18-300x188.jpg 300w, https:\/\/hva.group\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/FRAME-WEB-TIN-HVA-18-768x480.jpg 768w, https:\/\/hva.group\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/FRAME-WEB-TIN-HVA-18-18x12.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">VnDirect has just released its outlook for the stock market in June, highlighting that the earnings per share (E\/P) ratio of the VN-Index increased slightly by 0.1 points % to 7.1% mainly due to improved business results in Q1\/2024 of listed companies, while the VN-Index increased by 5.2% in May 2024 to 1,272.6 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The average 12-month mobilization interest rate of commercial banks in May 2024 has begun to reverse, increasing by about 0.1 points % compared to the previous month to 4.7%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">During the week from May 13 to May 27, the State Bank injected a net amount of VND112,639 trillion through the OMO channel to average the amount of USD sold to the market and reduce liquidity pressure. However, the State Bank then returned to net withdrawal when the interbank overnight interest rate fell sharply and fell below 3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In general, the gap between VN-Index&#039;s E\/P and 12-month deposit interest rates is maintaining a high level compared to history, showing that the stock investment channel is still very attractive in the current low interest rate context.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the valuation front, earnings growth will support the market\u2019s trailing P\/E valuation of 15.8x, 8.6% lower than the five-year average P\/E of 17.4x, according to Bloomberg data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The valuation of VN-Index is quite reasonable when compared to emerging markets in terms of P\/E ratio and relatively cheap in terms of P\/B ratio. However, the trend of improving business results in 2024 will be a strong supporting factor for the stock market. VnDirect maintains its forecast of net profit growth of companies listed on HOSE at 16-18% compared to the same period in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to VnDirect, there is a negative correlation between the 10-year government bond yield and the P\/E ratio of the VN-Index. However, after approaching the important milestone around 3%, the yield of Vietnam&#039;s 10-year government bonds has adjusted down to 2.85%. This will somewhat ease the market&#039;s previous cautious sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The stock market is converging conditions to return to a short-term uptrend because: The DXY index has weakened and the gap between international gold prices and domestic gold prices has narrowed, which will help ease exchange rate tension.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After reaching the important milestone of 3%, the yield of 10-year government bonds has turned down. Vietnam&#039;s economy recorded a stronger recovery in the manufacturing sector, thereby reinforcing the positive profit growth picture of listed enterprises in the coming quarters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/media.vneconomy.vn\/w900\/images\/upload\/2024\/06\/07\/screen-shot-2024-06-07-at-09-56-08.png\" alt=\"VnDirect: Exchange rate and interest rate pressure cools down, investors should increase portfolio proportion - Photo 1\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Therefore, investors can increase their stock holdings when macro indicators improve, paying special attention to sectors with supportive stories such as steel, real estate, sugar and technology. \u201cInvestors should increase their stock holdings as pressure from exchange rates and interest rates on the interbank market has cooled down,\u201d analysts at VnDirect emphasized.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Market risks still revolve around the FED\u2019s monetary policy. Specifically, if higher-than-expected inflation figures are announced, it will slow down the FED\u2019s decision to lower interest rates and thereby increase pressure on Vietnam\u2019s monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">VnDirect also maintains the base case for the market in 2024 with the view that the FED will cut interest rates for the first time at its September meeting. There will be at least one interest rate cut in 2024. DXY After falling below 105 points, DXY is likely to fluctuate around 102 - 105 points in Q3\/2024. Vietnam&#039;s import and export Vietnam&#039;s export is expected to grow by about 10% in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Vietnam&#039;s credit may increase by 14% in 2024, slightly lower than the SBV&#039;s plan. VN-Index is expected to reach 1,300 - 1,350 by the end of 2024, based on the expected growth of after-tax profits of listed companies at 16 - 18%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: VnEconomy<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>VnDirect v\u1eeba \u0111\u01b0a ra nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n th\u00e1ng 6 v\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec3m nh\u1ea5n t\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t thu nh\u1eadp tr\u00ean gi\u00e1 (E\/P) c\u1ee7a VN-Index t\u0103ng nh\u1eb9 0,1 \u0111i\u1ec3m % l\u00ean 7,1% ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu nh\u1edd k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 kinh doanh Q1\/2024 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p ni\u00eam y\u1ebft c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n trong khi VN-Index \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng 5,2% [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":6283,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[13,18,16,15,14],"class_list":["post-6282","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tin-tuc-thi-truong","tag-co-hoi","tag-ho-tro","tag-kinh-te","tag-tai-chinh","tag-tu-van"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.2 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>\u00c1P L\u1ef0C T\u1ef6 GI\u00c1 V\u00c0 L\u00c3I SU\u1ea4T H\u1ea0 NHI\u1ec6T, NH\u00c0 \u0110\u1ea6U T\u01af N\u00caN T\u0102NG T\u1ef6 TR\u1eccNG DANH M\u1ee4C - HVA Group<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"VnDirect v\u1eeba \u0111\u01b0a ra nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n th\u00e1ng 6 v\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec3m nh\u1ea5n t\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t thu nh\u1eadp tr\u00ean gi\u00e1 (E\/P) c\u1ee7a VN-Index t\u0103ng nh\u1eb9 0,1 \u0111i\u1ec3m % l\u00ean 7,1% ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu nh\u1edd k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 kinh doanh Q1\/2024 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p ni\u00eam y\u1ebft c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n trong khi VN-Index \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng 5,2% trong th\u00e1ng 05\/2024 l\u00ean 1.272,6 \u0111i\u1ec3m.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/hva.group\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6282\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u00c1P L\u1ef0C T\u1ef6 GI\u00c1 V\u00c0 L\u00c3I SU\u1ea4T H\u1ea0 NHI\u1ec6T, NH\u00c0 \u0110\u1ea6U T\u01af N\u00caN T\u0102NG T\u1ef6 TR\u1eccNG DANH M\u1ee4C\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" 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