{"id":5491,"date":"2024-04-16T09:35:31","date_gmt":"2024-04-16T02:35:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hva.group\/?p=5491"},"modified":"2024-04-17T09:50:57","modified_gmt":"2024-04-17T02:50:57","slug":"bond-investors-seem-to-be-getting-caught-up-in-the-middle-east-turmoil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hva.group\/en\/bond-investors-seem-to-be-getting-caught-up-in-the-middle-east-turmoil\/","title":{"rendered":"BOND INVESTORS SEEM TO BE STUCK BY MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"500\" src=\"https:\/\/hva.group\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/FRAME-WEB-TIN-HVA-4-5.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5492\" srcset=\"https:\/\/hva.group\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/FRAME-WEB-TIN-HVA-4-5.jpg 800w, https:\/\/hva.group\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/FRAME-WEB-TIN-HVA-4-5-300x188.jpg 300w, https:\/\/hva.group\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/FRAME-WEB-TIN-HVA-4-5-768x480.jpg 768w, https:\/\/hva.group\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/FRAME-WEB-TIN-HVA-4-5-18x12.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>US bond investors are now caught in a precarious situation as the threat of a wider war between Iran and Israel drags on, sending oil prices higher and the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates high for longer to fight inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In a note on Monday, the uncertain region is not a good place for bonds, describing the current geopolitical backdrop in the Middle East as \u201cneither severe enough to cause a flight to safety for bonds, nor deflationary enough to want to own bonds.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Israel is reportedly weighing its response to an attack from Iran over the weekend, NBC reported Monday, citing an unnamed Israeli official. The news comes just days after Iran launched a retaliatory strike against Israel after it accused it of attacking its consulate in Syria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the current conflict de-escalates enough to lead to real peace, without a war of attrition and without the threat of a wider regional war in the Middle East, although highly unlikely, this would be deflationary because history shows that war is inflationary, NBC added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWar requires more resources to be directed towards defence and war-making, causing supply chains to shift into less optimal configurations and consumers and businesses to stockpile,\u201d Macquarie said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The more likely scenario \u2013 neither a broader regional conflict nor a genuine peace \u2013 is a \u2018war of attrition\u2019, Macquarie estimates, saying that in this scenario, Israel, by avoiding a broader war, would be able to maintain a regional coalition against Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the ongoing war of attrition between Iran and Israel, \u201cthe threat of superpower involvement remains low,\u201d limiting the possibility of a rush into safe-haven bonds, but the possibility of supply disruptions and higher oil prices, prompting the Fed to hedge against inflation, keeping US interest rates high for longer, is likely to depress bond prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, if the axis of war tilts towards a much broader war \u2013 involving the superpowers \u2013 they would abandon their bearish bet on bonds, but reiterated that this was not the base case as they believe \u201can intensification of the \u2018war of attrition\u2019 would be more likely.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Investing<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>US bond investors are now caught in a precarious situation as the threat of an Iran-Israel conflict sparking a wider war drags on, sending oil prices higher and the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates high for longer to [\u2026]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":5492,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_focuskw":"co phieu trai phieu","_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0\u00a0tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu M\u1ef9\u00a0hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang b\u1ecb m\u1eafc k\u1eb9t trong t\u00ecnh th\u1ebf b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n khi m\u1ed1i \u0111e d\u1ecda xung \u0111\u1ed9t Iran-Israel g\u00e2y ra m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn tranh r\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n s\u1ebd k\u00e9o d\u00e0i, khi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng cao v\u00e0 C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang s\u1ebd gi\u1eef l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao trong th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t.","footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[16,15],"class_list":["post-5491","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tin-tuc-thi-truong","tag-kinh-te","tag-tai-chinh"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.2 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - 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