2024 VN-index promises to surpass the 1300 point threshold, as the world stock market continuously surpasses its peak. Along with the economic recovery and supporting factors from fiscal and monetary policies, the optimism spreading from leading stock markets such as the US and Japan will help create growth momentum for the Vietnamese market. This reflects a positive signal about the economic outlook and investors' confidence in the development potential of the Vietnamese stock market.
1. World Stock Market Situation in 2024
World stocks continuously surpass peaks in early 2024. has seen strong growth, from the US to Japan, major indexes such as the Dow Jones and Nikkei 225 have recorded new records. Optimism spread from Asia to Europe and the US, creating a positive foundation for emerging markets such as Vietnam stock market and VN index.
In the first trading session of 2024, the Nikkei 225 index of the Japanese stock market made a breakthrough when it surpassed the 38,000 point threshold, recording an increase of more than 3%. This marked the first time since the asset bubble burst in 1990 that the index reached this milestone. In the Toyo market, the Topix Index was not far behind when it increased by 2.12% to 2,612.03 points, reaching a 34-year high. This evokes excitement and positive news for the Japanese stock market in the coming time.
Across the Asia-Pacific region, stock markets have seen positive growth in recent trading sessions, especially after the Lunar New Year holiday. Both South Korea and Singapore have recorded significant gains. For example, the Kospi index of the South Korean market rose to 1.12%, while the Kosdaq also recorded a strong increase of 2.25%, making the market more vibrant than ever. At the same time, Japan's commodity price index also showed growth, surpassing Reuters' forecast with an increase of 0.2% in January, creating a positive signal for the economy in the region.
The US stock market also continued to record positive results in the first trading session of the week with a new record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 125.69 points (0.33%), reaching an all-time high of 38,797.38 points, a milestone for the US financial market. Meanwhile, on Friday of last week, the S&P 500 closed above 5,000 points for the first time, creating a new historical peak. This growth was not limited to the Dow Jones and S&P 500 but also spread to the Nasdaq Composite, with increases of 1.4% and 2.3% respectively last week. This increase has increased the S&P 500 by more than 5% since the beginning of the year.
Traders are focused on the consumer price index (CPI), a key measure of inflation. Other key economic data releases this week include January retail sales, manufacturing, imports and exports, new housing starts and the producer price index (PPI). However, despite the strong market momentum over the past three months, there are concerns about a possible correction. According to Bespoke Investment Group, the S&P 500 has gone more than 70 trading days without falling more than 2%, a sign that should be watched closely.
World stock market situation continuously exceeds 2024 peak.
2. Vietnam stock market growth momentum
Along with the strong recovery of the Vietnamese economy, the market Vietnam Securities has made steady progress. Up to now, VN-Index is fluctuating around the 1200 point mark, although encountering some resistance, the VN index continues to maintain stability.
Forecast for VN-Index in 2024 is currently concentrated around 1,300 points, according to many market experts. It is expected that the market's profit drop will mainly appear in the third and fourth quarters of 2024, with listed companies' profits expected to increase by 16.8%. The market's P/E ratio is expected to fluctuate between 12 and 12.5 times.
Inflationary and exchange rate pressures are expected to decline in 2024 compared to 2022 and 2023, reflecting the global trend of declining inflation, especially in major economies such as the US and the EU, and this trend is expected to continue to decline in the coming period. Although there are potential factors such as political conflicts in some areas such as Gaza and the Red Sea crisis, these factors are being carefully monitored and do not pose significant inflation concerns.
Regarding exchange rates, the market expects the Fed to adjust monetary policy and possibly lower interest rates as early as March 2024 to respond to the US inflation and labor market slowdown. The Fed's interest rate cut is expected to weaken the dollar, thereby reducing exchange rate pressure and facilitating the State Bank of Vietnam's maintenance of a stable monetary policy. Deposit interest rates are expected to remain low and lending interest rates to continue to decline in 2024, which could be a positive support factor for the stock market.
Regarding the business performance of listed companies, there is a question of whether growth can return to pre-COVID-19 levels. Although there have been three consecutive quarters of profit declines in 2023, a recovery is expected in 2024, with GDP growth forecast at around 6%, higher than in 2023, and listed company profit growth expected to be between 15-20%.
In summary, with the above factors, the Vietnamese stock market may have positive developments in 2024, with an expected growth rate of about 15-20%. Promising sectors include securities, information technology, and industrial real estate, all of which benefit from the trend of lower interest rates and investment capital flows.
3. Factors supporting the growth of VN Index
In 2024, stock index The VN-Index promises to continue to grow strongly and surpass the 1,300-point threshold, supported by a number of important factors. The recovery of the Vietnamese economy, along with policies to support businesses and favorable trade agreements, will play an important role in promoting the growth of the stock market. At the same time, the return of foreign capital and the potential for stock price increases are also positive factors helping the VN-Index achieve this expectation.
1. Stable economic growth: Data shows that the recovery of the Vietnamese economy is going strong. With the GDP growth rate reaching 6.5% in 2023, expected to continue to maintain a high level this year, this creates favorable conditions for businesses operating in the stock market. Stable growth in the economy is an important factor supporting the increase in the value of stocks on the VN-Index.
2. Business support policy: The Vietnamese government has been implementing many policies to encourage and support businesses, in order to promote economic development and the stock market. The application of these policies not only helps increase investor confidence but also boosts the business activities of listed companies, contributing to the growth of the VN-Index.
3. Advantages from trade agreements: Participation in international trade agreements such as CPTPP and EVFTA brings many new opportunities for Vietnamese enterprises. These agreements not only open up new export markets but also help enterprises have more conditions to compete and access new technologies, thereby enhancing competitiveness and increasing the value of shares on the stock market.
4. Foreign capital flows back: After reaching record highs, foreign capital flows are showing signs of returning to the Vietnamese stock market. The return of investment capital from foreign investors will bring a large amount of capital to the market, increase liquidity and diversification, as well as contribute to the growth of the VNindex.
5. Potential for stock price increase: With stable economic growth, supportive policies from the government, as well as openness from international trade agreements, listed companies have high potential for stock price increases. The growth of businesses as well as profit potential will be the main driving force behind the increase in value of VN-Index.
4. Challenges and risks of VN index in 2024
Although the outlook for VN-Index 2024 is positive, but challenges and risks still need to be noted. Factors such as geopolitical conflicts, the global economic situation and pressure from domestic events can cause volatility in the stock market and the VN index.
In 2024, the Vietnamese stock market will face many challenges and risks, regardless of the prospect of the VN-Index surpassing the 1,300-point threshold. One of the biggest challenges is geopolitical conflicts, when fluctuations in the political apparatus can cause instability and uncertainty for the market. This instability can stem from policy decisions, laws or even issues related to national security, creating concerns and distrust from investors.
In addition, the global economic situation is also facing many challenges, including fluctuations in commodity markets, energy prices, and instability in international trade relations. These factors can cause turbulence and negatively impact the Vietnamese stock market through channels such as reduced exports, currency value, and increased input material prices for businesses.
Domestically, pressures from internal economic events and issues can also impact the market and the VN Index. Issues such as public debt, bad debt in the banking system, and the impact of events such as the scandals of major banks can cause anxiety and uncertainty for investors. Pressure from monetary and fiscal policy adjustments can also create significant volatility in the market.
In this context, OnStocks stock investment Investors are advised to pay attention to risk management and portfolio diversification becomes extremely important. Investors need to consider and closely monitor the factors affecting the market to make smart and flexible investment decisions in a volatile environment.
Source: Onstocks
