The stock market bulletin records notable developments, providing investors with multi-dimensional information about trends and growth potential. Below is a summary of some of the highlights and analysis of the market situation in the form of a bulletin.
Rushed sell-offs and bargain hunting pushed liquidity to a five-month record high.
The sudden outbreak of conflict in Iran last weekend caused a rather panicked reaction in global stock markets. Domestically, the VN-Index at one point plummeted by 1,921 TP3T as investors rushed to sell off. However, this presented a great opportunity for bargain-hunting investors, resulting in a rather impressive price recovery.
- Signal: Positive
- Impact on: GAS, BSR, PVD, PLX, PVT, HNX, OIL, PVO, POV, PTV
- Analysis: The impressive recovery after the hasty sell-off shows strong absorption of bargain-hunting capital, especially with liquidity reaching a five-month record high. This reinforces confidence in the market's short-term recovery, creating opportunities for investors to prioritize fundamentally sound stocks affected by sentiment. However, further monitoring of capital flows is needed to assess the sustainability of the uptrend.
Foreign investors took advantage of the dip to aggressively buy shares, causing oil, chemical, and rubber stocks to surge.
The buying pressure from bargain hunters showed signs of weakening in the afternoon session, eroding the recovery efforts of the morning. Not only did the VN-Index reverse its downward trend, but stock prices also fell amid significantly lower liquidity compared to the morning session.
- Signal: Neutral
- Impact on: VHM, TCB, BID, VPB, HPG, GAS, PLX, GVR, STB, DGC
- Assessment: The active participation of foreign capital in sectors such as oil and gas, chemicals, and rubber indicates short-term growth potential for these areas. Despite signs of weakening bargain-hunting towards the end of the session, selecting stocks with strong fundamentals and those benefiting from commodity price fluctuations remains a sound strategy. Investors should carefully monitor liquidity developments and adjust their portfolios to optimize profits amidst market volatility.
Domestic stocks are expected to experience significant volatility due to the impact of the conflict in the Middle East.
The VN-Index is close to its historical peak around 1,900–1,920 points, and a corrective dip to 1,850–1,870 or even lower (1,800–1,830) is likely if selling pressure spreads or foreign investors engage in strong net selling.
- Signal: Neutral
- Impact on: OPEC, GAS, BSR, PVS, PVD, PVC, OIL, PLX, DPM, DCM
- Market Outlook: The market is approaching its historical peak, posing a risk of a sharp correction if selling pressure increases or foreign investors intensify profit-taking. This is a golden opportunity for investors to review their portfolios, prioritize risk management by reducing margin positions, and prepare resources to buy potential stocks when prices correct to support levels. A defensive strategy will help preserve capital in the short term.
How might the conflict in Iran affect the global economy?
The military conflict between the US and Israel and Iran is posing a new threat to the global economy.
- Signal: Negative
- Impacts on: WTI, CFR, OPEC, IEA, EIA, ING, KINH, LNG, ECB, BOE
- Assessment: Escalating conflict in Iran poses a significant risk to the global economy, particularly through oil prices and supply chains. This instability could fuel inflation, forcing central banks to reconsider monetary policy, directly impacting production and consumption costs. Investors should review sectors sensitive to energy prices and supply chains and may seek safe-haven assets such as gold in the short term.
Amid the conflict in Iran, domestic experts predict gold prices could rise to $5,734 per ounce.
“"Gold could continue to rise sharply next week, heading towards the resistance level of $5,429 - $5,734/oz," expects Mr. Tran Hoang Son, Market Strategy Director of VPBankS.
- Signal: Neutral
- Impacts: GAS, BSR, PVS, PVD, PVC, OIL, PLX, DPM, DCM, BFC
- Analysis: Amidst rising geopolitical tensions, gold is seen as a safe-haven asset, and a sharp increase in gold prices is a natural market reaction. This creates opportunities for investors to seek profits from gold funds, gold mining stocks, or directly invest in the precious metal. However, risk management is crucial when investing in gold, as it is a highly volatile market heavily dependent on global political and economic developments.
The UAE temporarily suspended stock trading for two days due to the conflict in Iran.
Amid escalating regional conflict, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) decided to close two major financial markets, the Abu Dhabi Stock Exchange (ADX) and the Dubai Financial Market (DFM), for two days, March 2nd and 3rd.
- Signal: Negative
- Impact on: UAE, ADX, DFM, CMA, TASI, MSX, EGX
- Assessment: The UAE's decision to temporarily suspend stock trading is a clear negative signal, indicating the severity of the regional conflict and its direct impact on financial market stability. This could cause anxiety in global markets, particularly emerging markets with close economic ties to the Middle East. Investors should exercise particular caution with assets linked to or sensitive to geopolitical risks at this time.
Multiple scenarios forecasting world oil prices.
If the conflict escalates, global supply could fall by 10–20 tons, pushing oil prices to record highs, potentially exceeding $130–200 according to some extreme estimates.
- Signal: Neutral
- Impact on: OPEC, LNG, UAE, OTC
- Assessment: Scenarios for world oil prices, particularly the possibility of exceeding $130-200 per barrel if conflict escalates, will have far-reaching impacts. This price level would not only fuel global inflation but also affect the operating costs of many businesses, thereby negatively impacting economic growth. Investors should consider oil and gas stocks that could benefit from rising oil prices, but must also factor in the risks of decreased demand or government intervention to stabilize prices.
Iran is estimated to account for approximately 2-51 TP3T of the total global Bitcoin mining power.
If the conflict continues and disrupts the power grid, Iran's Bitcoin mining output could decline in the short term.
- Signal: Neutral
- Impact on: IRGC, CBI, USDT, IRR
- Analysis: Iran contributes significantly to global Bitcoin mining power, so a prolonged conflict could disrupt the power grid and impact mining operations. While the direct impact on Bitcoin price may be short-term, it highlights geopolitical risks to the cryptocurrency market and the dispersion of mining centers. Investors in the cryptocurrency sector need to closely monitor the situation, especially altcoins related to energy or blockchain infrastructure.
The stock market news bulletin aims to provide investors with an overview, while emphasizing the importance of careful analysis before making investment decisions. Following market news from HVA The provision will help investors seize opportunities from short-term fluctuations and adjust their portfolios in line with market trends.
