The stock market bulletin records notable developments, providing investors with multi-dimensional information about trends and growth potential. Below is a summary of some of the highlights and analysis of the market situation in the form of a bulletin.
After five consecutive weeks of gains, is the 1900-point resistance level too tough?
The sharp decline in banking stocks this afternoon put significant pressure on the VN-Index, despite efforts by VIC and VHM to offset the losses. With a much more negative market breadth than in the morning session and a surge in liquidity (39%), active selling pressure dominated the market.
- Signal: Neutral
- Impact on: VIC, VHM, VCB, BID, CTG, VJC, FPT, VNM, GVR, GAS
- Assessment: The sudden surge in liquidity indicates strong profit-taking sentiment after a long-term rally. In the short term, the VN-Index is likely to need time to consolidate before retesting the 1,900-point peak. Investors should be cautious with stocks that have risen sharply, consider taking partial profits, and shift to less volatile groups to minimize the risk of a correction.
Liquidity suddenly dropped sharply, causing stock prices to buck the trend.
Large-cap stocks continued to diverge sharply this morning, causing the VN-Index to fall for the third consecutive session. In particular, there were signs of capital withdrawal from the banking sector, resulting in a sharp drop in overall liquidity compared to yesterday morning. Market breadth showed that the number of declining stocks was double the number of rising stocks, but the concentration of capital in the securities sector offered a positive sign.
- Signal: Neutral
- Impact on: VIC, VHM, VPL, VCB, BID, CTG, TCB, VPB, MBB, STB
- Analysis: The divergence in cash flow indicates a strategic shift in investment by smart capital, temporarily withdrawing from the banking sector to move towards stocks with positive Q1 earnings expectations. In the coming period, investors can take advantage of corrections in the banking sector to gradually accumulate shares as valuations fall, while maintaining a high weighting in the securities sector if the upward trend continues.
Equity funds are returning to a defensive stance, holding high proportions of cash.
Most funds with NAVs exceeding 1 trillion VND have reduced their disbursements, indicating a more cautious sentiment among fund managers as the VN-Index approaches the 1,800 mark.
- Signal: Positive
- Impact on: VIB, VCB, CTG, MBB, PYN, FPT, ACB, VPB, TPB, TCB
- Assessment: The trend of increasing cash holdings in funds may help the market maintain stability during short-term corrections, while creating room for new disbursements at attractive prices. In the long term, this is a positive sign indicating that institutions still have confidence in the market outlook and are preparing for a new growth cycle. A sensible strategy is to disburse funds gradually during technical corrections.
Gold prices jump over $100/oz, with the $5,000/oz mark within reach.
World gold prices reversed dramatically in Thursday's trading session (January 22), re-establishing an upward trend and heading towards the major milestone of $5,000/oz.
- Signal: Negative
- Impact on: SPDR, NATO, PCE
- Analysis: The sharp rise in gold prices indicates increasing global demand for risk hedging, partly reflecting a cautious sentiment toward risky assets such as stocks. In the short term, this could put pressure on financial markets and investment flows, particularly in developing economies. Investors should reduce margin positions and increase cash holdings to cope with the unpredictable volatility associated with global risks.
Could deposit interest rates increase by as much as 1.51 TP3T in 2026?
Forecasts suggest that deposit interest rates for state-owned banks may increase by 50-100bps from current levels. The remaining commercial banks will see more divergence and larger increases (70-150bps).
- Signal: Neutral
- Impact on: KBSV, LDR, CASA, NIM
- Assessment: The upward trend in deposit interest rates will impact banks' net interest margin (NIM) in the medium term, while also slowing down credit recovery. However, banks with high CASA ratios and sound loan portfolios will be less affected. Investors should prioritize banks with strong liquidity foundations and robust risk management policies. Anticipating interest rate hikes should be based on macroeconomic prospects and the specific valuation of each stock.
US stocks continue to rise, oil prices slide 2%
The US stock market rose on Thursday (January 22), continuing its recovery from the previous session as geopolitical tensions remained relatively stable.
- Signal: Neutral
- Impact on: NATO, CNBC, WTI
- Analysis: The upward trend in the US market is supporting global investor sentiment, while falling oil prices are helping to control inflation and input costs in many countries, including Vietnam. In the short term, this is supportive for the consumer and transportation sectors. However, the energy sector may face profit pressure. A sensible strategy is to diversify portfolios with flexible weightings across sectors that benefit specifically from the current commodity price cycle.
MBB was ordered to recall bonds due to violations in the use of funds.
MBB was ordered to recall 6 bonds that had been offered and issued, and to refund investors the purchase price of the securities or deposit (if any), plus accrued interest from the purchase price of the securities or deposit, within 15 days from the date of receiving the investor's request.
- Signal: Neutral
- Impact on: MBB, KPHQ, TMCP, HOSE
- Assessment: The bond crisis has raised concerns about risk management and financial transparency in the banking system. However, given the short processing time and relatively small scale, the long-term impact can be controlled. Investors should closely monitor the regulatory authorities' response and prioritize investing in credit institutions with clear and transparent credit histories to mitigate financial risks.
The stock market news bulletin aims to provide investors with an overview, while emphasizing the importance of careful analysis before making investment decisions. Following market news from HVA The provision will help investors seize opportunities from short-term fluctuations and adjust their portfolios in line with market trends.
