After the strong increase at the beginning of the year, the group of securities stocks still seems to be "exhausted". Experts believe that the short-term growth potential of this group is not much, but it is still highly appreciated in the medium and long term.
VN-Index has repeatedly missed the important threshold of 1,300, causing doubts about the market's upward trend. In particular, the securities and banking stocks are considered the main drags on the market.
There is not much room for short-term growth.
For example, in the session of July 15, increased selling pressure caused many stocks to reverse and decrease, especially the correction of the banking and securities groups, which "held back" and made it difficult for the market to recover.
Or like in the trading session on July 12, VN-Index opened in green, but after more than 1 hour of trading, selling pressure increased widely and cash flow was quite cautious, causing the main indexes to shake and sink into red at the end of the session.
In the first 4 months of 2024, stock markets created a "wave" after revealing a picture of bright first-quarter business results and the attraction of the "game" of capital increase.
However, since the end of April, this group has shown a somewhat “lost momentum” performance compared to other sectors. Transactions have been sluggish, and many stocks have failed to maintain their previous price gains.
In fact, in the context of stock market liquidity gradually becoming gloomy when cautious sentiment prevails, it becomes more difficult for stock groups to increase their prices.
According to records, order matching liquidity has tended to decline since the end of the first quarter. After about 3 months, the average order matching volume of 20 sessions on HoSE has fallen to the lowest level in more than a year and shows no signs of improvement.
In addition, the gradual increase in interest rates has more or less affected the market, especially the securities companies (CTCK) group when lending activities and margin use are limited, especially in the context of the market still having many unpredictable fluctuations.
Furthermore, the lack of momentum from margin may make it difficult to untie the liquidity bottleneck in the short term. This may affect revenue from brokerage and margin lending activities.
On the other hand, the failure of the VN-Index to break out will significantly affect the self-trading portfolio, which has brought significant profits to securities companies in recent years.
In addition, the delay of the new KRX stock exchange system project or the pending emerging market upgrade are also negative factors.
Medium- and long-term outlook remains positive
In a newly updated report, KB Securities Vietnam (KBSV) noted that the current valuation of securities stocks partly reflects a positive outlook for the second half of 2024. Currently, stocks in the industry are all trading above or approaching the std+1 range of the 5-year P/B average.
Along with the information gap related to the progress of KRX implementation, the group of securities stocks may record short-term adjustment and accumulation periods.
However, the prospects of the securities group are still assessed as relatively optimistic in the long term. KBSV maintains a positive view on prices and liquidity for the Vietnamese stock market in the second half of 2024.
In KBSV's opinion, the possibility that the Vietnamese market can be upgraded in September 2024 is not high because changing the transaction process without requiring pre-funding requires time for authorities to build a mechanism as well as for securities companies to prepare resources, systems and appropriate risk management plans.
However, with the Government's determination, KBSV expects that Vietnam's stock market will be upgraded according to FTSE Russell's assessment in 2025 and officially added to the FTSE emerging market index basket in 2025 - 2026.
However, most opinions agree that there will be differentiation, because the structure of securities companies has many changes, causing clear differences in business activities.
Companies that have raised capital or have plans to raise capital strongly, causing a large free float ratio, will have a harder time increasing their prices. Mid-cap stocks are more likely to bounce back if their business results are impressive.
In addition, investors can also observe and choose stocks of securities companies that can perform pre-funding (foreign investors do not need to deposit before buying stocks, just need to pay on the morning of T+2).
Pre-funding is one of the solutions to upgrade the stock market, so investors need to closely follow the progress of the application in particular and the progress of upgrading the market in general.
Source: VnBusiness
