According to VnDirect, the KRX system is expected to come into operation in the second half of 2024. If this happens on time or ahead of schedule, it will be a driving force for securities stocks to increase in price more than the general market.
Statistics from VnEconomy on 70 securities companies monitoring showed that the total proprietary trading portfolio at the end of the second quarter of 2024 recorded more than 230 trillion VND, equivalent to more than 9 billion USD, an increase of 12.21 TP3T compared to the figure at the beginning of 2024. Of which, FVTPL accounted for 621 TP3T; HTM accounted for 221 TP3T and the rest was AFS.
SSI is the securities company with the largest proprietary trading portfolio, mainly FVTPL, showing that the company prefers to invest in stocks with a listed stock value of VND 1,092 billion. The listed stocks SSI is holding include VPB, STB, CTB, HPG with an original investment value of VND 1,130 billion. Bonds VND 14,469 billion, certificates of deposit VND 23,282 billion. During the period, SSI recorded a profit from this portfolio of VND 1,034 billion, a sharp increase compared to the same period last year.
Along with increased revenue from margin lending and brokerage, SSI reported pre-tax profit in the second quarter of VND 1,041 billion, up 44.51% and 591%, respectively, over the same period in 2023.
VnDirect ranked second with a proprietary trading portfolio of VND26,575 billion, an increase of VND2,500 billion compared to the beginning of the year. VnDirect's FVTPL portfolio is mainly listed bonds worth nearly VND8,600 billion, certificates of deposit worth VND7,390 billion and listed stocks worth VND1,283 billion with 3 stocks VPB, HSG, ACB.
TCBS and VCI have a clearer long-term investment strategy. At TCBS, the proprietary trading portfolio is mainly AFS financial assets available for sale at VND18,783 billion, accounting for VND911.3 billion of the total value of the proprietary trading portfolio. Similarly, at VCI, the proprietary trading portfolio increased by nearly VND3,000 billion compared to the beginning of the year, reaching VND9,830 billion, of which AFS assets were VND8,513 billion, accounting for VND861.3 billion. Regarding business results, VCI reported pre-tax profit of VND343 billion, up 2.6 times compared to the same period last year.
According to VnDirect Securities' forecast, the investment portfolio value will increase to VND 265,000 billion, an increase of VND 331 billion and the investment yield will reach about VND 121 billion by the end of 2024.
Along with that, VnDirect forecasts that the average trading volume per session in 2024 will be around VND25,000 billion, an increase of VND40% over the same period. However, the trading volume per session in the second half of 2024 will be almost the same as the first half of the year.
The industry's margin lending balance will find it difficult to achieve significant growth compared to the first 6 months of the year in the context of market liquidity expected to remain flat. In addition, margin lending yields will decrease as major brokerage firms (SSI, HCM, MAS, HSC) reduce margin lending interest rates to expand market share.
As for the KRX system, although it was expected to go live in May 2024, it has been delayed due to some legal reasons. However, the regulatory agencies are working to speed up the launch of the KRX system. In addition, the authorities are also urgently finalizing regulations to remove the requirement to have 100% of funds in the account before making a transaction.
The KRX system will not only support the deployment of new products and improve liquidity, but also help replace the entire current trading and clearing system. VnDirect expects the KRX to be operational in 2024.
“Currently, the KRX system is expected to come into operation in the second half of 2024. If this happens on time or ahead of schedule, it will be a driving force for securities stocks to increase in price more than the general market,” VnDirect emphasized.
In the market, there is a significant differentiation among securities stocks, when only about half of the stocks have outperformed the VN-Index since the beginning of the year, including: HCM, VCI, MBS, CTS, TVS, VDS, BVS and FTS.
The stocks that have outperformed the VN-Index in the past 7 consecutive months are BVS, VDS, MBS and CTS. Most of these companies have the highest ROE in the industry, so their value is largely reflected in the increase in their stock prices.
“The long-term growth potential of the securities industry has been reflected in valuations. Therefore, the valuation of this industry is no longer attractive compared to other industries in the context that the long-term prospects related to the implementation of the KRX system, the upgrade to emerging market status and the first Fed rate cut expected in March 24 have all been delayed,” according to VnDirect.
Source: VnEconomy
