According to statistics, outstanding loans at securities companies at the end of the second quarter of 2024 continued to break records, estimated at about VND 225,000 billion, far exceeding the early period of 2022 when VN-Index was above the peak of 1,500.
The stock market fluctuated strongly in the second quarter, VN-Index failed to break the 1,300 point mark many times, but investors' demand for leverage remained very high. According to statistics, outstanding loans at securities companies at the end of the second quarter of 2024 continued to break records, estimated at about VND 225,000 billion, far exceeding the early period of 2022 when VN-Index was above the peak of 1,500.
Compared to the end of the first quarter, outstanding loans at securities companies as of June 30 are estimated to have increased by about VND18,000 billion, marking the 6th consecutive quarter of increase compared to the previous quarter. Of which, outstanding margin loans are estimated at about VND218,000 billion, an increase of VND23,000 billion compared to the end of 2023 and also a record number in the history of Vietnam's securities market.
In general, most of the top securities companies in lending recorded an increase in outstanding loans after the second quarter. Many securities companies had outstanding loans increase by over a thousand billion compared to the end of the first quarter, including TCBS, SSI, HSC, VNDirect or ACBS, etc. On the other hand, securities companies whose lending activities were narrowed in the second quarter all recorded a small decrease in outstanding loans.
The securities company with the strongest increase in outstanding loans in the second quarter was TCBS with an increase of more than VND5,100 billion. As of March 31, TCBS' outstanding loans reached nearly VND25,000 billion (USD1 billion), continuing to hold the No. 1 position among the securities companies. This is also the highest outstanding loan balance that a securities company has ever achieved in the history of Vietnam's securities market.
Not only TCBS, many securities companies also broke their own loan balance records in the second quarter, such as HSC, MBS, ACBS, FPTS, KBSV, etc. The strong rise of HSC has pushed Mirae Asset out of the top 3 loan balances after many years. Being out of the capital increase race is part of the reason why this foreign securities company is losing ground. The last time Mirae Asset increased capital was more than 3 years ago, in November 2021.
By the end of the second quarter, the entire market had 6 securities companies recording outstanding loans of over 10,000 billion. Of these, only VPS recorded lower outstanding loans compared to the end of the first quarter. Besides TCBS, SSI was the only name with outstanding loans of over 20,000 billion as of June 30, but this was not the highest number that this securities company had ever achieved.
In general, outstanding loans at securities companies continued to increase, contributing to balancing the huge net selling pressure from foreign investors. In the second quarter alone, foreign investors net sold more than VND38,000 billion on HoSE with very strong selling pressure in May and June. This trend continued in July, thereby raising the total net selling value since the beginning of the year to nearly VND60,000 billion.
It is easy to see that relying on margin alone is not enough in the face of great pressure from foreign investors. The market needs new money to enter to overcome this resistance. In fact, new money entering is not really abundant. This makes the market face many difficulties before the threshold of 1,300 points and it is not easy to overcome in the short term.
According to a recent report by KBSV, interest rates tend to increase again due to exchange rate pressure, which also affects the market flow. This securities company forecasts that the mobilization interest rate level will continue to increase by 0.7-1% in the second half of 2024. Exchange rate pressure is forecast to remain tense in the third quarter, before cooling down in the fourth quarter thanks to the Fed's interest rate cut as well as increased foreign currency from remittances and exports entering the peak season.
With limited cash flow, KBSV also has a more cautious view of the market in the coming time when lowering the expected score of the VN-Index at the end of the year to 1,320 points (from 1,360 points in the latest report). This securities company lowered the average EPS growth forecast of listed companies on the HSX to 14% (from 19% in the latest report) after the first quarter data was not as optimistic as expected.
Source: CafeF
