The analysis team expects the VN-Index to soon surpass the resistance level of 1,300 points in July.
The stock market is moving in a positive direction.
In its newly released strategy report, Yuanta Securities assessed that the stock market is still in a period of strong fluctuations in a positive direction. The analysis team expects the VN-Index to soon surpass the resistance level of 1,300 points in July.
Yuanta expects the FED to lower interest rates soon in September 2024, which will be a factor supporting the growth of Vietnamese stocks in the third quarter of 2024. At the same time, positive macroeconomic data along with positive growth data of listed enterprises in the second quarter of 2024 will also support the market's growth in July 2024.
“Low valuations in large-cap stocks and the projected P/E of the VN-Index at 12.x (equivalent to a yield of 8.3%) show that the stock market is still more attractive than other investment channels even when savings interest rates are on the rise again.“, Yuanta stated his opinion.
Based on the above comments, Yuanta offers some notable stock groups in July including: Transportation, Technology, Chemicals, Banking, Securities, Electricity, Food production, Oil and gas production, Tourism.
GDP growth rate in Q3/2024 will continue to be higher than Q2/2024
Commenting on the macro situation, the analysis team said that the economic picture in June showed more positive signals than in April and May when data on production, consumption, import and export activities grew better as well as macro fundamental factors such as interbank interest rates, exchange rates and gold prices all cooled down.
According to Yuanta, the industrial production index continued to grow compared to the previous month and increased sharply compared to the same period last year. Notably, the number of new orders and export orders increased sharply despite rising selling prices and input cost pressure. Meanwhile, demand for goods from major exporting countries increased again as the economies in major exporting countries are recovering better. On the positive side, the trade surplus returned in June after a trade deficit in May, which will further support the issue of the exchange rate gradually cooling down.
In addition, investment activities remain an important factor driving growth. While registered capital and disbursed FDI in June grew strongly again, public investment activities are still being strongly urged. In addition, the situation of registering new enterprises and registered capital both increased compared to May and the same period last year.
With the domestic and global economic recovery momentum becoming clearer, Yuanta assesses that the GDP growth rate in the third quarter will continue to be higher than the second quarter, slightly decreasing in the fourth quarter due to the high base level in the fourth quarter of 2023 and the economic growth for the whole year reaching about 6.2%, equivalent to the adjusted level at the end of the first quarter.
Source: CafeF
