The stock market bulletin records notable developments, providing investors with multi-dimensional information about trends and growth potential. Below is a summary of some of the highlights and analysis of the market situation in the form of a bulletin.
VN-Index heavily pressured by blue-chip stocks, while other stocks traded positively.
After a very strong increase of 1,25% at the end of the continuous trading session, the VN-Index unexpectedly plunged back to near the reference level due to strong selling pressure on several large-cap stocks. Although the index closed with only a small increase, stocks showed greater divergence and improved performance compared to the morning session.
- Signal: Positive
- Impacts: VIC, ATC, GAS, PLX, STB, PET, DCM, GEE, DPM, PVD
- Analysis: Although the overall index is under pressure from large-cap stocks, the divergence and improvement of many stocks indicate that capital is seeking opportunities in specific sectors. Investors can consider stocks with strong fundamentals and unique stories to capitalize on price increases, while applying portfolio allocation strategies to minimize risk during periods of significant market volatility. The short-term trend may continue with smart stock selection.
Demand for high prices weakened, leading to a widespread market correction.
Although some large-cap stocks are still performing well, they are not strong enough to support the overall market and the index. The breadth of the VN-Index shows that the number of declining stocks is 2.8 times greater than the number of rising stocks, with 108 stocks falling by more than 11% of their value.
- Signal: Neutral
- Impact on: VIC, BID, GAS, GVR, SSI, STB, DGC, VCI, VCK, VIX
- Analysis: The weakening of high-priced demand and widespread downward corrections indicate increasing profit-taking pressure after a growth cycle. This is a time for investors to exercise caution, consider restructuring their portfolios, and prioritize stocks with solid business prospects and reasonable valuations. In the long term, corrections present opportunities for asset accumulation for far-sighted investors, but careful risk management through diversification and setting clear stop-loss levels is essential.
The USD surged, and global capital continued to flow into US stocks.
Over the past week, US ETF inflows have increased again, with net inflows of $16.8 billion, up 4281 TP3T from the previous week. US equity ETFs reversed their previous week's net outflows, seeing net inflows of over $2 billion amid a strong US dollar and market expectations that the Fed will not cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting.
- Signal: Neutral
- Impact on: PCE, DJIA, FTSE, CGS, MWG, VNM, HPG, ACB, STB, VHM
- Analysis: The strong US dollar and global capital inflows into US equities reflect market expectations regarding the Fed's monetary policy. This could put pressure on emerging markets, including Vietnam, as capital flows tend to shift. Vietnamese investors need to closely monitor exchange rate movements and global monetary policy to assess the impact on capital costs and the competitiveness of domestic businesses, thereby adjusting their investment strategies, possibly prioritizing businesses less dependent on exchange rate fluctuations.
Waiting for a large influx of cash.
The rather enthusiastic recovery this afternoon was dampened by the performance of key stocks, causing the VNI to collapse almost completely, despite still rising by more than 11% at the end of the session. However, the intraday price movements of most stocks confirm a rebound.
- Signal: Neutral
- Impact on: VNI, VIC, ATC, HSX
- Analysis: The fact that the VN-Index was pressured by large-cap stocks, but most other stocks still recovered, shows a clear divergence and expectations of large capital inflows awaiting clearer signals. This period requires investors to be patient, avoid emotional trading, and focus on technical analysis to identify reasonable entry/exit points. Waiting for confirmation from large capital inflows will help minimize risk and optimize profits in the medium term.
The oil price shock could alter the interest rate outlook at four central banks.
The current context could lead to new monetary policy signals from the Fed, ECB, BOE, and BOJ this week.
- Signal: Negative
- Impact on: ECB, BOE, BOJ, FORMC
- Assessment: Oil price volatility is a significant macroeconomic factor that could directly impact inflation and the monetary policies of major central banks. If oil prices continue to rise, central banks may be forced to maintain higher interest rates or raise them, putting pressure on global economic growth and stock markets. Investors need to assess inflation risks, closely monitor messages from the Fed, ECB, BOE, and BOJ to adjust their portfolios, and consider sectors less sensitive to interest rates or those likely to benefit from commodity prices.
US stocks maintained their recovery momentum despite a renewed surge in oil prices.
The US stock market rose on Tuesday (March 17), thanks to a recovery from the previous session, even as escalating tensions in the Gulf continued to push oil prices above $100 a barrel.
- Signal: Neutral
- Impact on: NATO, FOMO, CNBC, UAE, WTI, ING
- Analysis: The US stock market's continued recovery despite rising oil prices indicates that investor sentiment remains positive regarding the prospects for US corporate earnings and the economy. However, geopolitical risks and high oil prices remain potential factors that could cause unexpected volatility. Investors should exercise caution, diversify their portfolios, and avoid over-reliance on a single market. For the Vietnamese market, it is necessary to consider sectors with direct or indirect links to the US market to assess opportunities and challenges.
Gold prices stalled ahead of the Fed meeting, SPDR Gold Trust continued selling off its holdings.
“I think gold prices still have the potential to set new records, but that probably won’t happen anytime soon. I think the bulls are running out of steam,” said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals.
- Signal: Negative
- Impact on: SPDR, UAE
- Analysis: The stagnation in gold prices and the continued sell-off by the SPDR Gold Trust signal that large investors are losing confidence in the short-term upward trend of the precious metal, possibly due to expectations of higher interest rates or a shift of funds towards riskier assets. For investors, this is a time to reassess the role of gold in their portfolios, considering reducing its weighting if the goal is short-term profit, or maintaining it as a long-term hedge against inflation and economic instability.
Could the dollar's recovery not last?
“"Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have once again reinforced the role of the USD as a major safe-haven currency for the world.".
- Signal: Neutral
- Impact on: HSBC, CNBC
- Assessment: The US dollar's recovery amidst geopolitical tensions demonstrates its role as a safe-haven asset. However, this recovery may not be sustainable if tensions ease or the Fed signals a more dovish monetary policy. Investors need to closely monitor global macroeconomic factors to forecast the trend of the US dollar, thereby assessing its impact on import-export businesses and foreign investment flows in Vietnam. Exchange rate risk management is key during this period.
The stock market news bulletin aims to provide investors with an overview, while emphasizing the importance of careful analysis before making investment decisions. Following market news from HVA The provision will help investors seize opportunities from short-term fluctuations and adjust their portfolios in line with market trends.
