The stock market bulletin records notable developments, providing investors with multi-dimensional information about trends and growth potential. Below is a summary of some of the highlights and analysis of the market situation in the form of a bulletin.
Domestic institutions increased net buying ahead of the holiday.
Domestic institutional investors made net purchases of VND 4,089.6 billion on the last trading day of the week, with net purchases of VND 3,927.2 billion recorded in matched orders alone. This move occurred as the market was about to enter a long holiday period, indicating domestic confidence.
- Signal: Neutral
- Impact on: HOSE, HPG, MBB, BSR, STB, VNM, PVD, SZC, GMD, BVH
- Analysis: The influx of domestic institutional capital into the market reflects preparation for a positive scenario after the Lunar New Year. In the short term, this helps consolidate short-term lows and support the prices of blue-chip stocks. However, in the long term, it is necessary to monitor whether this demand will be sustained to determine a sustainable trend. Investors can take advantage of minor corrections to accumulate stocks with strong fundamentals.
The market experienced a tug-of-war as it entered a "transition" phase.“
Liquidity improved in the latter half of the session but was still insufficient to provide upward momentum, causing the market to continue fluctuating within a narrow range. A wait-and-see attitude led to mostly sideways trading in most stocks.
- Signal: Neutral
- Impact on: PNJ, GEL, DCM, PVD, KDH, DXG, DPM, DIG, VHM, VIC
- Assessment: Selling pressure from foreign investors coupled with weakening domestic capital flows is preventing the market from breaking through. In the short term, this creates a risk of a slight correction. In the long term, investors need to monitor capital flow trends and growth momentum from supportive policies. The strategy should prioritize observation and accumulation when the market consolidates at a stable bottom.
The sharp drop in liquidity clearly reflects the holiday sentiment during the Lunar New Year.
Trading volume on both listed exchanges reached only about 7,441 billion VND – the lowest level in 8 weeks. This clearly shows signs of speculative capital withdrawal; however, the market still maintained its price level due to the stability of large-cap stocks.
- Signal: Neutral
- Impact on: VHM, BID, VIC, GAS, MBB, DGC, VIB, MWG, PLX, HPG
- Analysis: Weak liquidity indicates cautious investor sentiment ahead of the holiday. In the short term, the market lacks momentum, but the fact that prices are holding steady suggests that support still exists. In the long term, we need to wait for capital to return to establish a new trend. Investors should maintain a balanced portfolio structure and avoid speculative decisions during periods of low liquidity.
The outlook for a recovery in February has significantly diminished.
Although February is typically considered a month with a high probability of growth based on seasonal factors, the VN-Index lost more than 41% in just the first week of the month, significantly impacting recovery expectations.
- Signal: Neutral
- Impact on: ECB, BOE, VIC, VCB, VHM, BID, VPL, MBS, BTC, FTSE
- Assessment: The negative developments at the beginning of the month cast doubt on the reliability of historical patterns in the current context. In the short term, pressure from international markets and foreign investors is causing significant volatility in sentiment. In the long term, macroeconomic factors such as inflation and monetary policy need to be carefully monitored. Investors should prioritize defensive strategies, choosing companies with strong cash flow and less sensitivity to cyclical fluctuations.
MSCI expects to upgrade the Vietnamese stock market in 2028.
According to a report by VNDirect, Vietnam could be upgraded to emerging market status in MSCI's annual review in June 2028, provided it meets the remaining criteria regarding foreign ownership limits and payment mechanisms.
- Signal: Positive
- Impacts: MSCI, VIC, HSX, KRX, FTSE
- Assessment: The upgrade will open up large-scale capital inflows from global index funds. In the medium term, this is a fundamental factor attracting institutional investors. In the short term, the expectation of an upgrade helps maintain positive market sentiment after the Lunar New Year. The strategy should focus on blue-chip stocks and those with high weightings in the MSCI index. A risk to note is that the reform progress may be slower than expected.
Japan's election victory caused the yen to unexpectedly appreciate.
The Japanese yen strengthened sharply after election results showed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi winning overwhelmingly. Political stability has raised expectations of an end to ultra-loose monetary policy.
- Signal: Negative
- Impact on: LDP, CME, BOJ
- Assessment: This development could affect foreign investment flows into emerging markets, including Vietnam, as a stronger yen will draw capital back to Japan. In the short term, the Vietnamese stock market may face exchange rate pressure. In the long term, the impact depends on global currency trends. Investors need to manage exchange rate risk in portfolios related to exports or USD loans.
The volatile gold market has raised questions about its role as a "safe haven."
Gold price fluctuations have become unpredictable as ETFs continue to sell off and speculative trends intensify. Gold's traditional role as a store of value is being challenged amid uncertain interest rate trends.
- Signal: Positive
- Impacts: SPDR, WGC, CNN, VIX
- Analysis: Gold could shift from a defensive to a speculative asset depending on market expectations. In the short term, a sharp price increase is possible if inflationary pressures return. In the long term, investors should allocate gold wisely within their portfolios to diversify risk. Monitoring actions from central banks will play a crucial role in asset allocation decisions.
Policies to support attracting FDI boost potential stock groups.
According to MBS's industry report, innovations in Decree 20 and policies encouraging social housing and ESG are driving growth expectations for industrial real estate and information technology stocks.
- Signal: Neutral
- Impact on: MBS, FDI, ESG, DPPA, NOXH, FPT
- Assessment: New policies increase the attractiveness of FDI, thereby creating momentum for sustainable growth. In the short term, this information supports positive sentiment for the industrial and technology real estate sector. In the long term, this helps elevate the position of Vietnamese businesses in the global supply chain. Investors should consider disbursing funds in installments when prices adjust, prioritizing businesses with large land reserves and high-tech capabilities.
The stock market news bulletin aims to provide investors with an overview, while emphasizing the importance of careful analysis before making investment decisions. Following market news from HVA The provision will help investors seize opportunities from short-term fluctuations and adjust their portfolios in line with market trends.
