A recent chart circulating on social media X (formerly Twitter) has attracted attention as it claims that the United States will hold up to 7.8 million Bitcoins by the end of 2025, equivalent to about 40% of the global supply. According to the chart, India will be in second place with 1 million BTC, accounting for about 5.1% of the total Bitcoin in circulation.
This statement immediately created a wave of debate in the global cryptocurrency community. But is the data provided close to reality? Let's analyze carefully with HVA Group and look at it from the perspective of authentic data.
The Origin of the Controversial Chart
The chart was shared by investor Fred Krueger, which shows Bitcoin holdings by country and asset class. Krueger emphasized that Bitcoin is “a US game,” while Europe plays almost no role.
However, the chart does not cite a source for the data, which has led many experts to question its reliability. Blockstream CEO Adam Back responded in the discussion thread: “The source data seems unrealistic. I’m not sure how they constructed it, but I don’t think it’s reliable data.”
How Much Bitcoin Does the United States Hold Right Now?
Based on data from BitcoinTreasuries.net – a source trusted by analysts – the total amount of Bitcoin identified as being held by entities in the United States includes:
- United States Government: 198,022 BTC
- Public companies (e.g. MicroStrategy, Marathon Digital): 876,517 BTC
- Private company: 188,105 BTC
- ETFs in the United States: 1,342,715 BTC
Total: about 2.6 million BTC, or about 13.3% total supply – much lower than the 40% claimed in the propagation chart.
Additionally, while 13% Americans own cryptocurrency (according to Triple-A's 2023 figures), there is no indication that the total amount of Bitcoin held by US individuals is enough to bring the total closer to 8 million BTC.
The US Position in the Bitcoin Market
There is no denying that the United States is leading the world in terms of Bitcoin accessibility and infrastructure development. With a gradually improving legal ecosystem, professional investment products such as ETFs and licensed trusts, the US market is an attractive destination for institutional money.
However, that does not mean that the United States has absolute control over the market. Some statistics show that:
- Europe: holds about 900,000 BTC (~4.6%)
- Chinese Government: about 194,000 BTC, mostly confiscated and out of circulation
- Asia (except China and India) and Latin America: each area about 400,000 BTC (~2.1%)
These numbers show that Bitcoin is still widely distributed globally, rather than concentrated in a single country.
Can India Hold 1 Million BTC?
The chart’s 1 million BTC figure for India is also lacking in fact. At current prices, this equates to around $120 billion – a huge number when put into context:
- India's Cryptocurrency Regulatory System Is Still Unclear
- Tax policy causes many obstacles for investors
- The average holding ratio of individual investors is still low.
While the country is showing signs of strong growth in cryptocurrency adoption, the claim of owning 1 million BTC remains a guess not backed by any independent data.
Conclude
Currently, there is no hard data to prove that the United States will hold 40% of total Bitcoin by 2025. The actual holdings are only around 13%, even when private and institutional sources are added. Such unsubstantiated claims should be viewed with skepticism and based on concrete evidence.
